Chamber Notes Archives

December 2007

A message from the Grinch taints the holiday season

“Aside from that Mrs. Lincoln, how did you enjoy the play?

We all have moments when we divert our focus away from reality and take comfort in the safe haven of something positive. Even if that feeling pacifies us for just a fleeting moment.

Last week’s announcement that the unemployment rate in Blair County had dipped below 4.5% would ordinarily be received as good news by people like me whose livelihoods are tied to things like a strong economy. But despite what the numbers say, Mrs. Lincoln and I and possibly Paul Harvey can’t quite mentally distance ourselves from the rest of the story.

Let’s dispel the myths.

Myth #1: The unemployment figures are a reflection of the health of Blair County business. Actually, the calculations are determined by the number of Blair County residents working, out-of-work or currently looking for work. Whether or not those residents work in Blair County is inconsequential.

Myth #2: If the unemployment rate falls, it means more Blair County citizens are working than in the previous month. Not necessarily. It could simply mean that fewer people are looking for work. A close examination of employment statistics from the past two years indicates that unemployment figures were more strongly influenced by a drop in the number of Blair Countians seeking employment than by the availability of new jobs

Myth #3: It’s a boost to the Blair County economy when residents of the county work in other counties and spend the money they earn here. This may not be a myth but if we’re touting it as a positive factor in economic growth, we need to turn the coin over. Because Blair County is a huge importer of talent from other counties and has far more residents of those counties working here than we have working elsewhere.

Myth #4: The influx of new retail and hospitality businesses has actually hurt the local economy more than helped it. This is a popular notion that has no factual basis. Any business that contributes anything to an economy has a greater impact than no business at all. Where these new jobs have already begun to take a toll are on the people who are filling them. Blair County now has such a high population of under-employed people that its ability to recruit or retain people who aspire to move up within a company or organization has been diminishing for at least three years. In fact in 2005, the average wage for Blair County workers increased by 2.9%. The state average for that year was 5.6%. The reason that the recent hiring effort at the Sheetz Distribution Center attracted 1,600 applicants wasn’t that so many people were without work. A high percentage of those applicants are already working but were looking for positions offering higher wages.

Myth #5: Blair County business is simply in a down cycle and we have every reason to believe that prosperity is right around the corner. The county has many excellent businesses and the local economy has held its own surprisingly well considering that so many obstacles have been standing in the way. But the inability to recruit or retain many higher-paying employers isn’t for lack of effort. It’s generally conceded that the county’s economic developer – ABCD Corporation – is among the best in the Commonwealth.

The employment terrain is also more treacherous. Blair County’s drug problem has made it more difficult for businesses that are hiring to find dependable employees. And if those businesses drug test, the pool of applicants decreases dramatically. We’ve had some hospitality businesses tell us that if they drug tested their current employees, they’d likely have to close. A sad commentary on how far we’ve headed in all the wrong directions.

If and when Blair County bounces back will depend on a number of factors, few of which are leaning in our direction. We are fortunate in many ways that our community leaders maintain a spirit of relentlessness. That alone has sustained us when times were toughest.

I recognize that such doom and gloom is hardly an appropriate message for a holiday season. For that I apologize. Be assured that The Chamber and its partners will be counting our blessings during the next few weeks and will approach 2008 with a renewed sense of vigor.

Just like Honest Abe would have done.

Happy holidays!

Chamber Notes Archives